Saturday, January 7, 2012

"I've got those ... 'but what do you know?' blues." The real Shakespeare and conspiracies (Part 2)


Does any of it matter? In the end, Shakespeare’s plays will survive bad conspiracy theories the same way they survive bad productions. But where it does matter is the manner in which the argument is made.

It took 200 years for anyone to even consider that anyone but Shakespeare wrote his plays. Considering how many people knew about it, that’s some pretty good work by the conspirators. Only six people initially knew about the Watergate break-in, and it leaked like a sieve. But from the first i.e. 200 years after, we hear the familiar tropes of the conspiracy theorist. They are the ones intelligent enough to see through the lies and brave enough to broadcast their findings to the world. They are being hindered by the mainstream who see their work as a threat to their livelihoods. They are the underdog fighting the entire industry who want to destroy them.

There is a reason such a scenario appeals. Because such a thing does happen. William McBride, for example, was the one researcher who discovered the link between thalidomide and birth defects. It was a struggle, involving taking on a big pharmaceutical company, but his findings were found to be true and thalidomide was banned for pregnant women. Later on McBride besmirched his own reputation when he claimed to find a similar link between birth defects and Debenox. In this case he had falsified and manipulated data. His study was discredited and ultimately he was struck off the medical register. He has since been reinstated but the damage to his reputation was done.

The conspiracy also feeds into some of our myths and stories – the struggle of the underdog, David vs Goliath, one brave person taking on a evil organisation and winning. How many novels, poems and movies have been based on a similar idea?

The truth, the exposer will say, will out. The fact is, it does. A radical researcher, historian, doctor or whoever, if they are actually telling the truth, will find their results and ideas validated in the long run. The ones who are deluded, mistaken or making false reports are also found out. When Dan Schechtman first presented his theories on quasicrystals he was told by no less than Nobel Prize winner Linus Pauling that it was nonsense and he was a quasi-scientist. This year he won the Nobel Prize for Chemistry for that very work. Likewise Andrew Wakefield’s paper linking autism and vaccination, though popular and finding supporters and adherents throughout the world, has been found to be fraudulent.

Wakefield’s work continues to do its damage now. Previously controlled diseases like mumps and measles are experiencing new outbreaks, threatening the health of thousands of people around the world. There are parts of Australia where it is unadvisable to take newborns, because of the high-rate of non-immunised children in the area. Wakefield’s supporters will say that the fraudulent finding is part of the conspiracy to hush up his findings. However, the medical professional and pharmaceutical companies are quite open about the potential side-effects of immunisation, including convulsions and a form of meningitis. Parents are warned of these dangers, and researchers are working on eliminating them. But the profession also knows the small amount of risk involved is far outweighed by the greater good done through immunisation programmes worldwide.

And here is another part of the conspiracy theory trope: you can’t trust the experts. People who have spent their lives studying a subject are either too close to the subject, too vested in the subject, or too financially tied to their subject and either cannot understand this new work or are actively trying to destroy it. The expert is either stuck in a lofty ivory tower, or an active force for evil. This seems harmless eccentric belief applied to the Shakespeare authorship question. It is far more sinister when applied to the medical profession, scientists and history.

I have already discussed the real damage done by Wakefield’s fraud. In the debate over global warming we hear of scientists who have their income predicated on creating studies supporting anthropogenic global warming, and so they falsify their reports to back the financial interest of their masters, and ultimately their own. As a scientific argument, this is rubbish. If one wants to argue about science then, as they did with William McBride and Andrew Wakefield, engage them on their methodology and figures. Engaging them on their motivation is ludicrous and no argument at all.

In history, this style of argument is in its most sinister in regard to the Holocaust. The Holocaust is dismissed as a fraud, an industry to let historians and survivors make money and to allow Israel its own way in foreign relations. David Irving was an arch-denier, given inexplicable credibility by the historical profession, through a mix of self-promotion and an ability to track down previously unknown documents and sources. Sadly, he used these skills to promote Holocaust denial, anti-Semitism and racism. When one historian, though she was not the first, called him a denier, he sued her and her publisher Penguin Books. Backed by Penguin and a team of lawyers and supporters from various areas, Deborah Lipstadt fought the action and won. Irving was spectacularly hoist on his own petard and exposed as the racist, anti-Semitic, non-historian that he is.

There is such a thing as healthy scepticism. Authorities whether they be medical, scientific, historic or political, need to be checked, queried and challenged. However, a mindless rejection of authority is as brain-dead and I think even more dangerous than mindless acceptance. Think for yourself, but get your information from people who know more than you do.

However, I can report that I have disproved one conspiracy theory. Between Facebook, Myspace, Twitter, blogs and Wikipedia, we have definitely proved that a million monkeys at a million typewriters will not produce the works of Shakespeare.

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